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Never in modern history has the world's leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction at the same time it is funding the ongoing war in Iraq. Could this be a tipping point for America's shoestring economy? - Stephen Roach Quotes

Never in modern history has the world's leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction at the same time it is funding the ongoing war in Iraq. Could this be a tipping point for America's shoestring economy?

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets -- possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets -- possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare.

In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession, - Stephen Roach Quotes

In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,

I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility, - Stephen Roach Quotes

I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,

To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question. - Stephen Roach Quotes

To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.

I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move. - Stephen Roach Quotes

I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.

We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing. - Stephen Roach Quotes

We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages. - Stephen Roach Quotes

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.

There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer. - Stephen Roach Quotes

There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S.. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

China

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets -- possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare, - Stephen Roach Quotes

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets -- possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare,

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006. - Stephen Roach Quotes

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices. That will be key as to whether or not the U.S. economy will sustain itself in 2006. - Stephen Roach Quotes

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices. That will be key as to whether or not the U.S. economy will sustain itself in 2006.

Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.

Man

Sound the alarm, it's Allan McMahon! - Stephen Roach Quotes

Sound the alarm, it's Allan McMahon!

Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.

With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world, - Stephen Roach Quotes

With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,

Trade

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud. - Stephen Roach Quotes

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely. - Stephen Roach Quotes

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.

[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it's starting to move up a little bit, ... The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that. - Stephen Roach Quotes

[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it's starting to move up a little bit, ... The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001, - Stephen Roach Quotes

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass. - Stephen Roach Quotes

It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.

Past

The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.

I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand. - Stephen Roach Quotes

I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.

Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.

[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy. - Stephen Roach Quotes

[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.

I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy. - Stephen Roach Quotes

I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.

Risk

that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way. - Stephen Roach Quotes

that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment]. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

Past

He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams. - Stephen Roach Quotes

He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.

Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.

Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.

For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling. - Stephen Roach Quotes

For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.

Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.

That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn. - Stephen Roach Quotes

That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.

The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that, - Stephen Roach Quotes

The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that,

The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that. - Stephen Roach Quotes

The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.

There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected, - Stephen Roach Quotes

There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent -- a change I do not expect nor advise -- its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share, - Stephen Roach Quotes

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent -- a change I do not expect nor advise -- its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence. - Stephen Roach Quotes

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets.

Past

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer. - Stephen Roach Quotes

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

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